DAVAO, Philippines – The March 11 arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte and his transfer to The Hague to face the International Criminal Court (ICC) has rocked his Davao stronghold, leaving allies and critics in limbo.
Whether his legal troubles weaken or fortify the Duterte dynasty remains to be seen, but civic and opposition leaders in Davao City see a moment of reckoning for a family long entrenched in local and national politics.
The former president, facing accusations before the ICC of being responsible for thousands of extrajudicial killings during his bloody war on drugs, is seeking his old post. In 2024, he filed his certificate of candidacy for mayor and turned his son Sebastian – the incumbent local chief executive – into his running mate.
The Commission on Elections said Duterte would remain in the list of mayoral candidates in Davao City because he has not been convicted of any crime and neither barred from holding public office as a result.
Game changer
Now, the unprecedented development, once seen by many in Davao as unlikely, has raised questions about loyalty, succession, and the long-term influence of the former president’s brand of leadership.
For critics like ex-congressman Ruy Elias Lopez, who lost to Sebastian Duterte in the 2022 mayoral race, the arrest provided an opportunity for Davao’s political scene to evolve.
“This is definitely a game changer for the Duterte family,” Lopez said, noting that with the elder Duterte physically absent, supporters and local leaders may start reconsidering their allegiances.
A civic leader in Davao said the arrest was a jolt to the system, intensifying political divisions and creating new ones, while an activist called it a moment of national introspection, one that forces Filipinos to confront the lingering effects of Duterte’s presidency.
Lopez said the former president’s fate in the Netherlands will have long-term consequences for the family’s political stronghold.
“The effect on this is that the people of Davao will now be thinking as to who will they support or vote for the next mayor as Duterte is very far from their midst,” Lopez said. “What are they going to do? Will they go to the Netherlands to see their mayor?”
Duterte’s mayoral bid is being challenged by several aspirants, including Karlo Nograles, his former Cabinet secretary – a member of another political dynasty in Davao.
Lopez said he sees a possible shift in how local leaders operate, pointing out that Duterte would likely remain in detention and his case could drag on for years
“People, especially barangay leaders, won’t be able to come to him to ask for help or aid,” he said.
The former congressman also said the recent congressional and Senate hearings that exposed the scale of extrajudicial killings under Duterte’s war on drugs were a step to reshaping public perception.
“It will probably take several years or maybe three consecutive elections to change people’s mindset on the perennial dynastic rule of a ruling family,” he said.
Deepening divisions
Prominent Davao civil society group leader Maria Victoria “Mags” Maglana, who is making another run for Davao’s 1st congressional district after losing to Duterte’s eldest son, Paolo, in 2022, admitted she was caught off guard by the ex-president’s sudden arrest.
“Even though news about the case in the ICC has been ongoing for a number of years, it still was a surprise in the sense that who would have thought that the political climate and alignment would change enough to make his arrest possible. This surprise fueled and is still fueling confusion, a sense of betrayal, and outrage among many supporters,” she said.
Maglana noted how Duterte’s arrest has deepened existing political divisions. “The divisions among our people have been heightened, and new ones were created by the arrest. Some quarters will use the divisions to buttress their interests. These are the forces who will reduce the conflict into a ‘Duterte vs. Marcos’ situation. They are also conveniently conflating everyone who is not against the arrest as anti-Duterte and pro-Marcos.”
She warned of a potential backlash that could work in favor of Duterte’s allies. In such a situation, she said, the risk that people’s support for dynasties will be consolidated is very real.
“Already, we are hearing this in the calls that suggest that Duterte is a ‘martyr’ and we should ‘bring him home,’” Maglana said.
Maglana cited the Filipino affinity with the underdog and what this could mean for the elections, adding that the awa (pity) factor for the Dutertes could translate to uncritical support for the family’s candidates in the May election.
Like Lopez, Maglana said many political figures in Davao were waiting to see how events would unfold before making major moves.
“The other dynastic elements in local politics seem to be on a wait-and-see mode. Maybe because they are afraid that people’s strong emotions could cause backlash,” Maglana said.
Period of reflection
Civic leader Mae Fe Templa framed the arrest as a historic moment, which sent the message that “no one is above the law and that we are starting to reestablish ourselves in terms of who we are – that we are a people product of resistance movements from colonial times to the present.”
Templa said Duterte’s presidency created a political and social divide that will take years to heal.
She said, “For the last six years, Duterte created another angle of our psyche, almost similar to what the Spanish hoped – like culpable human rights violations, acceptable behavior of misogyny. We have managed to erode that inclination to belittle women because of the quality of the women’s rights movement we had, but when Duterte rose to national leadership, it all overturned.”
Templa said the country was now in a period of reflection. “There is a good section of Philippine society rethinking what happened to us in the past six years. We are now in the stage of healing,” she said.
She called for political renewal at all levels, emphasizing the need to collectively address the leadership issues in Davao by bringing in new faces and new politics that will “overhaul the political system from the macro-level to the national level.”
Templa also stressed the need to involve young people more in national discourse.
She said, “It’s high time to engage young people more in the discourse, to be more analytical and critical on national issues.”
As Duterte’s case in The Hague unfolds, its impact on the family’s political dynasty – whether it weakens or fortifies their hold on power – remains to be seen.
But for now, many, including his critics, are in a wait-and-see stance, watching how the legal proceedings and public sentiment will shape the political landscape in the city and the country in the years to come. – Rappler.com