The German election results are out. As much as it is a nightmare to see the far-right party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), doubling its seats in the Bundestag — the German parliament — to a total of more than 20%, the old grand coalition between conservatives and progressives still has just enough seats to hold the center.
One in five voters chose the AfD and this against the highest historical voter turnout of 82.5%. Hence, the electoral results can be read as a conscious decision of the democratic electorate. Meanwhile, the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is set to return to power after a brief solo term by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) under Olaf Scholz. The CDU is back on top, while the SPD has slid into third place, trailing behind the AfD.
With 208 seats (28.5%) for the CDU and 120 seats (16.4%) for the SPD, a CDU-SPD coalition would total 328 seats (52%). This translates into a majority of merely 12 MPs. A new label instead of grand coalition would be appropriate.
After personal pronouncements from Olaf Scholz of “nothing to do” with the CDU, a renewed CDU-SPD coalition would mean Merz as new German chancellor and SPD joining in the government coalition with a reinvigorated younger party leadership. This coalition is possible as both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the left-splinter group Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) failed to meet the 5% threshold for Bundestag representation. Additionally, another 4.4% of votes were distributed among smaller parties. While the threshold prevents fragmentation in parliament — like how the Philippine House of Representatives have admitted a multitude of small parties and partylists — the downside is it amounts to 13% to 14% of votes being effectively wasted and underrepresented.
Data shows that many young voters backed either extreme left or right parties, neither of which can now form a government — deepening the frustration of an already disenchanted electorate. The soon-to-be government will have less political capital than it needs.
Yet, much like the European Parliament elections, centrist parties may still hold the line. But the question is: For how long?
The AfD has gone from being a party that “nobody wants to work with” to a frighteningly strong “largest opposition” force — one that openly calls for “remigration” (a euphemism for immigrant deportations) and flirts with authoritarianism.
Germany is now aboard the global wave of right-wing resurgence. But this isn’t just about Germany. The political shifts in Berlin could send waves across Europe and beyond — including right here in the Philippines.
What should we be paying attention to? Here are three key areas of how the new political realities in Germany could impact the Philippines:
The rise of ‘remigration’ and the precarity of Filipino migrants in the EU
Irregular migration and criminal migrants dominated the campaigns, following deadly attacks in Magdeburg, followed by Aschaffenburg and Munich. This worked like oil in the fire of the AfD pushing for “remigration” as all democratic parties put a harder stance on migration afterwards. Especially CDU, SPD, and the Greens. The AfD has already been successful in influencing the agenda.
Why does this matter to Filipinos? Because 14% of Filipino migrants in the EU — some estimates say up to 860,000 — are undocumented or in irregular status. That’s more than double the number in the US, where Trump’s ICE policies have already made life harder for migrant workers.
If Germany, as the EU’s largest economy, considers hardline anti-migrant policies, other member states could follow suit. This could imperil thousands of Filipino workers and threaten their sense of security to sudden deportation, job losses, and legal limbo.
The attack on supply chain accountability
One of the biggest under-the-radar casualties of a right-wing shift? The European Supply Chain Due Diligence Mechanism. This policy can be a potential mechanism in forcing multinational companies to take responsibility for labor and human rights abuses in their supply chains — including in the Philippines, where workers in factories have long faced less than favorable working conditions. The Department of Trade and Industry in the Philippines have reported that Germany is the leading trading partner of the Philippines in the EU, and with over $4 billion of investments from German businesses.
If conservatives would be cozying up to corporate interests, there’s a real risk that this hard-fought mechanism will be gutted or scrapped entirely. The nationalist rhetoric of the AfD is preparing the fertile ground for abandoning the instrument with which human rights are to be protected in favor of economic interests. When that happens, Filipino workers lose a crucial tool for holding global brands accountable, setting back decades of progress in fair trade and ethical labor standards.
The global conservative pushback on climate and gender
This isn’t just about Germany, or even just about Europe. There’s a growing international conservative movement pushing back against climate policies, gender equality, and progressive reforms — and Elon Musk backing up AfD shows how the global conservative order sees Germany to be a major player in that fight.
Take the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), where right-wing leaders worldwide strategize on dismantling climate regulations, attacking gender rights, and rolling back education reforms. When Elon Musk attended an AfD event and dismissed concerns about Germany’s Nazi past, it wasn’t just a random remark — it was a signal that the far right is ready to reshape mainstream politics.
While the Philippine legislation cares for gender equality, one could already see how fear-mongering tactics are muddying public discourse, framing gender education as a threat to “traditional values.” Expect that to intensify, with global conservative networks funding similar narratives in the Global South.
On climate action, signals of shift back to oil and gas as de facto energy sources in Europe could have significant consequences. The Philippines, already one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, stands to lose if global funding for green transitions dries up. AfD’s rollback on climate policies could embolden Philippine policymakers to stick with fossil fuels under the guise of “energy stability,” sidelining the real economic costs of climate inaction.
The bigger picture: A conservative digital age
Progressive forces worldwide are struggling against a perfect storm: the rise of right-wing populism, the concentration of digital power in the hands of conservative elites, and the rapid spread of disinformation. AI and data manipulation are making it easier for authoritarian-friendly narratives to take root, while social media algorithms amplify reactionary voices.
Germany may be half a world away, but in a globalized order, values and policies do not exist in silos. An increasingly bigger share of the AfD in German politics means fewer allies for the Philippines in its struggles for migrant rights, labor protections, climate justice, and democratic freedoms.
The currency of progressives is losing value in the mix of populism and conservatism amplified by authoritarian leaders and tech elites. Workers will be front and center in taking the hit in the rise of right-wing extremism around the globe. Center-left (and center) parties must take the workers’ power and agenda. In the same way, unions also have to build base support for progressive values and throw their political weight against right-wingers in the economic and political fronts.
The German elections have just finished, and the far right is far from done. What happens next depends on how effective and self-critical the international community of progressives analyze the situation and take action, without resorting back to old mechanisms for these new times. – Rappler.com
Chao Cabatingan is a Program Manager at the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Philippine office. All views in this article are solely his.