Pulse Asia released the results of its January 18-25 survey on February 10, while Octa Research and Development shared the results of its January 25-31 poll the following day. On February 12, I sat down with Dr. Ronald Holmes, president of Pulse Asia, and Professor Ranjit Rye, president of Octa, for separate, equally engrossing conversations about the prospects of the senatorial candidates.
(You can view Episode 106 of In the Public Square here.)
Holmes and Rye both recognized the volatility in the rankings. “Maybe the top quarter seems to be a bit more stable,” Holmes said. The top quarter would refer to the three candidates with the highest voters’ preference ratings: Erwin Tulfo with 62.8%, Bong Go with 50.4%, and Tito Sotto with 50.2%. The rest of the probable winners (11) and those immediately outside the probable winners’ circle (4) will figure in one of the most crowded, and likely the most expensive, of Senate elections.
(In the post-Edsa era, the lowest share of vote recorded by a winning senatorial candidate in a 12-seat election was 24% by Tessie Oreta in 1998. If we use that as the threshold, four candidates who lie immediately outside the winners’ circle with Pulse Asia ratings of 24% or higher — Kiko Pangilinan, Bam Aquino, Gringo Honasan, and Benhur Abalos — cannot be counted out just yet.)
Rye, mindful that the 2025 vote is only the second election that Octa is tracking, was also cautious. “I think it’s premature to say anything right now, given how the dynamics are at the moment.” But he also added, “Definitely those above 40% have a high probability of making it.”
A total of 11 candidates have Octa ratings of 40% or higher; the mix consists of eight administration candidates, two independents, and one opposition. That leaves just one seat open.
In both Pulse Asia and Octa surveys, the ruling coalition dominated: 10 out of 14 candidates with a statistical chance of winning for Pulse Asia, 12 out of 16 for Octa.
Administration dominance
That the administration slate will likely dominate the Senate elections should not come as a surprise; it fits the historical pattern. With one exception (2007), all the mid-term Senate elections held under the 1987 Constitution, including the two that may be only loosely considered as being in the middle of a presidential term (1987 and 2001), consolidated the power of the incumbent president and the ruling coalition.
In the 1987 elections, which formed the new Congress 15 months after Ferdinand Marcos was ousted and Corazon Aquino took office, 22 of the 24 Senate seats were won by the administration slate Lakas ng Bayan. In 1995, the Lakas-Laban coalition supporting Fidel Ramos won nine of 12 seats. In 2001, four months after Gloria Arroyo took over from Joseph Estrada, her People Power Coalition won eight of 12. In 2013, under Benigno Aquino III, Team PNoy won nine of 12. And, in 2019, nine of the 12 Senate seats at stake were won by Rodrigo Duterte’s Hugpong ng Pagbabago.
The only exception was 2007, when a coalition opposed to Arroyo, whose presidency was burdened by a legitimacy crisis because of the “Hello, Garci” scandal of 2005, won eight of 12 seats as the Genuine Opposition. (The eighth was awarded to Koko Pimentel only in 2011, vice Juan Miguel Zubiri.)
Interesting contrast: In presidential election years, the winning candidate for president did not carry a majority of the Senate seats at stake — with two exceptions (1998 and 2004). In 1992, Ramos’s Lakas slate won only two of the 24 contested seats; in 2010, Aquino’s Liberal Party earned only four of 12; in 2016, Duterte, running under PDP-Laban, did not carry a single Senate seat; in 2022, the UniTeam of Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Sara Duterte won only four Senate seats. The exceptions were 1998, when seven Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino candidates allied with Estrada won, and 2004, when seven Koalisyon ng Katapatan at Karanasan sa Kinabukasan candidates allied with Arroyo made it to the Senate.
Under the 1935 Constitution, the winning presidential candidate’s Senate slate always won a majority — with one possible exception (1961). In 1946, Manuel Roxas, of the faction then known as the Liberal wing of the Nacionalistas, won the presidency, with his Senate candidates winning eight of the 16 open seats; in 1949, Elpidio Quirino carried all eight of the Senate seats; in 1953, Ramon Magsaysay carried five Nacionalistas into the Senate; in 1957, Carlos Garcia won, with six Nacionalistas in tow. Marcos and the Nacionalistas won five of eight seats in 1965, and six of eight in 1969. The 1961 elections are a possible exception, with Diosdado Macapagal’s candidates winning four of eight seats; two of the other winners were guest candidates of his Liberal party.
In other words, under the two-party system of old, presidential candidates had coattails, which helped their candidates cross the election threshold. In the multi-party system in place since 1987, many presidential candidates no longer wear coats. (A shirt-jack has no tail, in presidential election years.)
Balance-seeking voters
There’s another historical pattern, enabled by the multi-party system and the conduct of triennial elections (which puts 12 Senate seats at stake, instead of only eight in biennial elections). In the post-Edsa era, voters seemingly always seek some kind of balance in the Senate. In 1987, two opposition candidates, Estrada and Juan Ponce Enrile, managed to overcome the massive swell of support for those who were called “Cory’s candidates.” Three opposition candidates won in 1995; four in 2001; three in 2013; one independent and one oppositionist in 2019. The reverse happened in 2007; despite her unpopularity, President Arroyo saw three of her allies, running under the TEAM Unity coalition, win.
The 2001 midterms merit a closer look. A mere four months after Estrada was ousted, and at his lowest level of support, his Pwersa ng Masa coalition still managed to win four out of 13 seats at stake, including one for his wife, Loi Ejercito. Three years later, his son Jinggoy followed his mother Loi into the Senate.
In other words, it is likely that, even if voters pack the Senate with Marcos’ candidates, consolidating the President’s power, they will also elect — from the looks of it — at least one opposition candidate (Go) and at least two independents (Ben Tulfo and Revillame).
Rye was the second pollster I interviewed who made special mention of a surge in the ratings for Revillame, the TV host and entertainer. “I honestly feel he’s the Robin Padilla of this particular race,” he said, referencing the actor who unexpectedly topped the Senate elections in 2022. To quote Revillame’s own game show tagline, “Bigyan ng jacket ‘yan.” – Rappler.com
Veteran journalist John Nery is a Rappler columnist, editorial consultant, and program host. In the Public Square with John Nery streams on Rappler platforms every Wednesday at 8 pm.