MANILA, Philippines – Around this time in 2022, then-presidential candidate Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. promised voters “unity” in a campaign speech that was scant on platform but heavy on imagery of a Philippines free of strife.
Alongside the “tiger of the north” was running mate Sara Duterte, the eldest daughter of then-president Rodrigo Duterte. Theirs was a formidable tandem that brought together the country’s biggest and most powerful clans and coalitions — the infamous ones included.
But that unity — forged because of convenience and circumstance — is long gone.
Three years later, Vice President Duterte is impeached by a House of Representatives dominated by Marcos’ allies, and led by his cousin and Duterte’s 2022 campaign co-manager House Speaker Martin Romualdez.
Ilocos Norte 1st District Representative Sandro Marcos, the President’s eldest son who once proudly stood beside Duterte in the 2022 election campaign, was the first signatory in the impeachment complaint against the Vice President.
On May 12, Filipinos will select 12 new members of the Senate from 64 candidates, and a party-list group from a pool of 155. All local posts — from governor, mayor, and down to city or town councilors — are also up for grabs.
But make no mistake — the 2025 polls are as much a referendum on Marcos’ promise of a “Bagong Pilipinas” as it is a gauge of the power of the Duterte name.
The campaign period for national posts and party-list groups kicks off on February 11 — Marcos’ Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas with a four-city hop in its first week, and independent candidates in expectedly smaller events across the Philippines on February 11 and subsequent days after.
Election backdrop
Much has happened since Duterte first took her oath as vice president in Davao City and Marcos was sworn into office on the steps of the National Museum of Fine Arts.
Marcos has broken away from his predecessor in a number of ways — most notably on foreign policy, the West Philippine Sea, in dealing with China, and even in his rhetoric of a “bloodless” campaign against illegal drugs.
Vice President Duterte, meanwhile, formally broke away from the administration when she stepped down as Marcos’ education chief. Within two months of her resignation, the Marcos-allied House formed a “mega-panel” that would probe links between Philippine offshore gaming operators (POGOs), Chinese syndicates, the illegal drug trade, and extrajudicial killings in the country. Former president Duterte’s war on drugs was front and center during the so-called quad comm probe.
The 2025 midterm elections will be critical for the Dutertes, as an impeachment trial against the Vice President looms, and a probe — or even a possible arrest warrant — from the International Criminal Court remains a possibility for her father.
The Vice President will need at least eight allies in the Senate to secure her acquittal. Otherwise, she faces ouster and perpetual disqualification from public office, which means she would be ineligible to run in 2028, a presidential race some believe is hers to lose.
Marcos enters the midway point of his six-year term with a considerable drop in both public trust and approval ratings. According to the December 2024 Pulse Asia survey, Marcos has a 47% trust rating, only slightly lower than Duterte’s 49%. The same survey showed 48% approval of Marcos’ performance and 50% approval of Duterte’s performance.
In contrast, Marcos enjoyed a 73% trust rating and a 68% approval rating in Pulse Asia’s December 2023 survey. Duterte, in the same survey, had a 78% trust rating and a 74% approval rating.
A more recent January 2025 survey by the Social Weather Stations commissioned by Stratbase put Marcos’ trust rating at 50%, and Duterte’s trust rating at 49% — both representing huge drops from July 2024 (Marcos registered 64% trust, while Duterte had a 65% trust rating.)
Strarbase’s Dindo Manhit, attributed the “continuous drop” of Marcos’ numbers to “growing frustration over the government’s weak response to rising inflation.” The price of goods, jobs, and poverty reduction are consistent top concerns of Filipinos, based on Pulse Asia’s regular polling.
The Marcos administration has had its share of very public hiccups, the breakdown of the 2022 alliance not included.
Marcos was concurrent agriculture chief until November 2023, even as the prices of basic food commodities had sharply risen.
His administration opened 2025 with a budget fiasco. First, the 19th Congress’ version apparently did not align with his administration’s vision. After weeks of scrambling to fix and then sign the budget into law, a Duterte-allied lawmaker accused Marcos and Malacañang of supposedly filling-in-the-blanks, because Congress had apparently approved a budget with blanks in it.
But it would be the developments related to Vice President Duterte’s impeachment — consummated just days before the campaign kick off — that will surely hog the headlines.
Reelectionists
Seven senators are seeking reelection to the upper chamber: Pia Cayetano, Ronald dela Rosa, Bong Go, Imee Marcos, Bong Revilla, Lito Lapid, and Francis Tolentino.
Cayetano, Revilla, Lapid, and Tolentino are running under the administration coalition slate, Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas. The President’s eldest sister Imee Marcos, a staunch ally of the Dutertes, is still part of the slate even after she announced her withdrawal so she could run “independently.”
Speaking to reporters on February 8, Alyansa campaign manager Navotas Representative Toby Tiangco said Senator Marcos is invited to all of the coalition’s sorties. Asked if Senator Marcos will join the campaign kick-off in Laoag City, Tiangco said it would be “more exciting” to wait and see.
A source told Rappler that Senator Marcos is expected to join the slate and her brother onstage on February 11. She is running under the Nacionalista Party, which is part of the administration coalition.
In the latest Social Weather Stations survey commissioned by Stratbase Consultancy and held in January, five of the reelectionists made it to the winning circle: Lapid (3rd to 4th), Go (3rd to 4th), Cayetano (7th to 8th), Dela Rosa (10th), and Revilla (11th to 13th). Senator Marcos and Tolentino ranked 14th and between 20th and 21st, respectively, despite their massive ad spending.
The reelectionists face a unique conundrum — when the campaign is over, there’s the impeachment complaint to address. Will they wear their hearts on their sleeves and speak publicly on whether they approve of the impeachment or not? Of course, all seven can opt to keep mum, citing the need to be impartial — or at least have the impression of impartiality — because they will eventually sit as senator-judges in the impeachment trial.
Comeback kids
Former Senate president Tito Sotto, along with former senators and losing 2022 presidential candidates Manny Pacquiao and Ping Lacson, are making comeback bids in the upper chamber.
All three, based on the latest SWS survey, are shoo-ins for the Senate race. They are also members of the administration coalition.
Sotto’s fresh bid for a return to the Senate comes at a particularly interesting time, with the recent controversy surrounding filmmaker Darryl Yap and his upcoming film, The Rapists of Pepsi Paloma. The film centers on the late actress Pepsi Paloma, who was allegedly gang-raped after being drugged in a hotel room. The film implicates Sotto, who is accused of coercing Paloma into signing an affidavit of desistance and dropping the charges.
Another aspirant for a return to the Senate is Gringo Honasan, who last held a seat in 2019.
The once-ruling Liberal Party is endorsing only two senatorial candidates: losing 2022 vice presidential candidate Kiko Pangilinan and Leni Robredo campaign manager Bam Aquino.
Pangilinan is an LP member while Aquino is the head of newbie political party Katipunan ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino (KANP). The two will be kicking off their bids in Cavite City on February 11, alongside Senator Risa Hontiveros and Robredo.
Of the reelectionists and Senate return hopefuls, seven were senators during the last impeachment trial to take place in the country, against former chief justice Renator Corona. Revilla, Lacson, Sotto, Pangilinan, Cayetano, Lapid, and Honasan all donned maroon robes in a months-long trial that eventually led to Corona’s ouster.
New faces, old names
Actor and noontime show host Willie Revillame is also aiming for a spot in the upper chamber. Revillame is running as an independent candidate in the 2025 elections, although he had announced more than a year ago that he was ready to accept former president Rodrigo Duterte’s offer for him to run under the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino (PDP-Laban).
In a race where popularity often trumps platform and plans, the wildly popular Revilla is ranked 11-13 in the latest SWS preference poll.
The children of giants in Philippine politics are also seeking a debut in the Senate, most notably, Makati Mayor Abby Binay and Deputy House Speaker Camille Villar.
Binay is the sister of the outgoing Senator Nancy Binay. Both are the daughters of former vice presidential and losing 2016 presidential candidate Jejomar Binay. The younger Binay has been ranking well in preference surveys, placing 9th in the last SWS survey.
As dominant as the family name has been in Makati and as constant as their presence has been in the Senate, theirs is a clan that hasn’t been in political harmony. Senator Binay will be seeking the Makati mayoralty seat against Abby’s husband, Makati 2nd district Representative Luis Campos.
Villar is the daughter of outgoing Senator Cynthia Villar and former Senate president and 2010 presidential candidate Manny Villar. If she wins, she will be a member of the 20th Congress alongside her brother, Senator Mark Villar. The youngest Villar has ranked between 12-14 in the latest surveys.
Progressive candidates are also seeking out Senate seats in 2025, although none of them are ranking high in voter preference surveys.
Makabayan is fielding an 11-person lineup: Liza Maza, Mody Floranda, Mimi Doringo, Jocelyn Andamo, Ronnel Arambulo, Danilo Ramos, Teddy Casiño, Jerome Adonis, Amirah Lidasan, ACT Teachers Representative France Castro, and Gabriela Representative Arlene Brosas.
Socialist labor leaders Leody de Guzman and Luke Espiritu have also thrown their hats into the ring once more. Transport leader Mario “Mar” Valbuena is seeking a 2025 Senate seat, too.
Senate graduates
Five senators are set to “graduate” in 2025 after serving two consecutive six-year terms or 12 years in office.
In the current roster of senators, Cynthia Villar, Grace Poe, Nancy Binay, and Aquilino Pimentel III will end their term on June 30, 2025. Senator Sonny Angara was going to “graduate” in 2025, but he was appointed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as education secretary even before his term expired. Angara formally assumed the position on July 19. He resigned as senator on July 16.
Villar is running for Las Piñas representative, while Binay and Pimentel are running for Makati mayor and Marikina representative, respectively. Poe said that she is taking a break from politics but has declared that she would be willing to accept a Cabinet role if offered. – Rappler.com